In the United States Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014) Baseline scenario, stricter fuel economy standards for vehicles contribute to lower motor gasoline consumption until 2040. At the same time, the The growth in heavy vehicle kilometers traveled (HGV) is greater than the increase in heavy vehicle fuel economy, which contributes to the increase in demand for diesel fuel.

A major driver of lower motor gas mileage is tougher fuel economy standards that the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) estimates will require new vehicles lightweights average around 49 miles per gallon during vehicle model year (MY) 2025, compared to their current compliance estimate of around 33 miles per gallon during MY 2012. The Reference Case < a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=15871" target="_blank" rel="noopener">predicts an increase in VMT which, all things being equal by elsewhere, would increase motor gasoline consumption. However, higher fuel efficiency standards more than offset this increase, resulting in an overall drop in motor gasoline consumption.

Contrary to the predicted decline in gasoline mileage, a large increase in heavy-duty VMT results in increased diesel fuel consumption, even though heavy-duty fuel economy increases in response to US Energy Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards EPA. New refinery projects are expected to focus on shifting production from gasoline to distillate fuels to meet growing domestic and global demand for diesel. In addition to meeting domestic demand, refineries continue to export finished products to international markets throughout the projection. The United States became a net exporter of finished petroleum products in 2011, with net exports of petroleum products increasing in the Reference Case through 2040.
June 26, 2014

Main contributor: Arup Mallik